25 June 2009

US10YY : Show Hand @ 3.58%

Chart in uptrend. Again we bounced off 3.58% last night (twice now). Move to lower yields not sustained for 2nd week in a row. Going forward, see either yield uptrend continuation or for this region to be bottom of a yield range. Either way, trading TY from short side is preferred to long.

[Aside : Long buying and selling tails on candlestick charts are a bit like Sherlock Holmes in "A Scandal in Bohemia". Recall in the story that Holmes staged a fake fire to trick the blackmailer into revealing where she had hidden a certain compromising photograph. The trading parallel is flushing out the intentions of long term hands amidst market chaos. This is what creates the long tails.]

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