Bad week, suffering from large drawdown due to short Rates (asset class) positions gone sour. Good example to illustrate the futility of over-analyzing every single nuance of price action (candlestick tails, etc ... what a waste of time). Best to stick to the overall big picture and not look too hard for reasons why a trade is good. If it works, it works. If it doesn't, so be it. Cut and move on.
USD index : From 80.31 to 79.89 (-0.5% w/w). Still consolidating, awaiting downside acceleration.
US10YY : From 3.79% to 3.54% (-25 bp w/w). Biggest mover of the week, to lower yields. I hesitate to make any kind of call in this now. Feels stupid to say that it looks like its heading down now.
S&P500 : From 921 to 919 (-0.2% w/w). Boring sideways.
Gold : From 934 to 938 (+0.4% w/w). As per S&P. Yawn.
27 June 2009
Weekly Update : Much Pain
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3 comments:
Why don't you just concentrate on just 1 group of product? Say Forex or Interest rate.
Specialists usually do better in trading.
Some large investment bank was tracking asset flows by US commericial banks. They have been buying Tresuries over the month of June, as the yield curve hit historical steepness and as corporate credit was weakening. So going back to your comment about lower yields... while it is kinda late to go long, it does seem from a flow perspective that yields should be capped for now.
Thanks Anon. Chart does look like upside for yields limited doesn't it?
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